The Archive

Articles

Accessible, evidence-based analysis on growth and inclusive development in South Africa.

Inequality is the binding constraint to growth

Inequality is not only a moral and political issue in South Africa but a core structural constraint on economic growth. Despite significant progress in income redistribution since 1994, the South African economy remains stuck in a cycle of stagnation, high unemployment, and deepening exclusion. The dominant development model—focused on enabling markets and fixing the state—lacks a transformative vision capable of shifting the underlying structures of economic power and production. This can be remedied by a shift in emphasis from income redistribution to the redistribution of assets and endowments, including land, housing, education, and access to capital.

18 FEB 2026

How alcohol excise tax can reduce harm

South Africa's alcohol taxation system requires urgent strengthening to address the devastating public health burden of harmful alcohol consumption. While National Treasury's proposed tiered excise structure represents progress, its thresholds are misaligned with current market realities and unlikely to reduce consumption. To effectively reduce alcohol-related harm, REEP proposes narrower tax tiers, higher uplift factors, and predictable above-inflation tax increases.

04 FEB 2026

Factories going quiet: how industrial stagnation in South Africa erodes competitiveness

South Africa’s competitiveness debate is often framed around short-term constraints: exchange-rate volatility, electricity shortages, or weak global demand. These factors matter. But they do not explain why periods of recovery fail to translate into sustained export growth or durable improvements in productivity. The deeper problem lies in industrial stagnation. Over the past three decades, the manufacturing sector has lost momentum, and with it, South Africa’s long-term competitiveness. This is not a story of collapse. It is a story of flattening production, rising import penetration, and constrained export capacity, whose effects accumulate slowly but persistently.

21 JAN 2026

The stories we tell about South African agriculture matter

Domestic agricultural output has more than doubled since 1994. Last year, South Africa was the 32nd largest agricultural exporter in the world. The sector has played a major role in establishing national (though not household) food security. Although we remain a country of “two agricultures”, not least because of the inertia of government, overall, the sector has benefitted substantially under democracy. We need to focus on what we can fix to promote inclusivity and not become mired in the “doom-saying” by some international (and local) players.

26 NOV 2025

The crisis of missing jobs in a country full of work

There is a shortage of jobs but no shortage of work to be done in our communities. What would it mean to design a strategy to address joblessness that is centred around the work that needs doing for the common good, rather than focusing only on the work that markets find valuable?

27 OCT 2025

Green - but hardly fresh: the PEAC’s 2025 Advisory Briefs

The Presidential Economic Advisory Council appointed last year has released its January Advisory Briefs. In support of South Africa’s G20 leadership, the Council focused on both global and domestic aspects of the transition to a green economy and fiscal debt issues. It has not yet brought its considerable expertise to bear on South Africa’s pressing investment, growth, employment and social development challenges.

23 SEPT 2025

Did South Africa’s curfew policy reduce COVID-19 cases? Evidence from December 2020.

What impact did South Africa’s nationwide curfew of December 2020 have on COVID-19 cases? The evidence, based on daily case data, shows a sharp and immediate decline in infections following the curfew’s implementation. The findings highlight the value of targeted restrictions, particularly when combined with alcohol bans, and offer policy lessons on timing, communication, and equity in designing effective public health interventions.

17 SEPT 2025

How better markets for village chickens can boost livelihoods

Village chickens are a pathway to alleviating poverty in resource-poor communities. Improvements to the informal poultry value chain, such as access to the market, commercialization, training and land, would assist in improving food security.

28 AUG 2025

Casting some light: how Free Basic Electricity has improved household welfare

Expanding access to electricity has been a major achievement of post-apartheid South Africa, yet affordability remains a persistent challenge for low-income households. To address this, the government introduced Free Basic Electricity (FBE) in 2003, offering 50 kWh of free electricity per month to indigent households. The study on which this article is based provides the first quantitative analysis of FBE’s effects on household welfare since its inception. We find receiving the FBE subsidy is associated with a shift towards clean cooking, investment in essential appliances, and small but significant improvements in literacy, writing, and numeracy. However, the subsidy does not yet reach all its intended beneficiaries: we indicate that institutional weaknesses need to be addressed alongside review of the value of the benefit.

20 AUG 2025

How have amnesty schemes for immigrant workers affected local employment? Evidence from Cape Town and eThekwini

The South African government has extended several amnesties to immigrant workers from Zimbabwe. Using employment data from 2014 to 2022, we find that legalizing immigrant workers mostly led to job growth for both locals and immigrants. However, in 2018, some local workers in Cape Town’s CBD lost jobs to immigrants. Overall, though, the ZEP has helped integrate immigrants into the job market. Now the policy focus must be on enhancing employment opportunities.

12 AUG 2025

How cooperatives can build the economic muscle of smallholder farmers: A case study of maize farmers in the Eastern Cape

South Africa's agricultural sector is characterized by a dualistic structure, with smallholder farmers struggling to integrate into the global value chain. Despite policies aimed at supporting smallholder farmers, implementation challenges and inadequate targeting of interventions hinder their effectiveness. This article examines the role of cooperatives in supporting smallholder maize farmers in South Africa, using the Eastern Cape as a case study. We recommend strengthening cooperative support programs, improving infrastructure and logistics, and enhancing access to finance and capacity-building initiatives, to improve the economic resilience of smallholder farmers and contribute to the broader growth of the agricultural sector.

30 JUL 2025

The untapped export potential of South Africa

South Africa has significant export potential that it is not fully realising. Our analysis of the country’s trade markets reveals opportunities for increased exports through better market intelligence and strategic initiatives. This analysis investigates South Africa’s export performance by market, identifies gaps between the actual and potential exports, and highlights key opportunities for growth. This article explores these opportunities and the challenges that need to be addressed to enhance the country’s export performance.

01 JUL 2025