The Archive
Accessible, evidence-based analysis on growth and inclusive development in South Africa.
The National Treasury has proposed substantially increasing excise taxes on alcohol. In response, the alcohol industry commissioned its own research arguing that the illicit alcohol trade has increased by 55% from 2017 to 2024. But the revenue figures from Treasury tell a different story.
A popular narrative holds that land reform has failed. But evidence from a study across four provinces tells a different story. Success is not about land reform alone, but about building capable farmers.
South Africa's new 3% inflation target is navigating its first external shock in the face of the hefty fuel price hike. The evidence suggests that containing inflation can boost growth, but this dividend is conditional. What determines whether it materialises has as much to do with fiscal policy as with monetary credibility.
Millions of South Africans are opting for a "third way" of urban living: low-density, spacious housing on the urban periphery under traditional land tenure. These settlements are the product of "co-production" between residents, traditional leaders, and a fragmented state. While they offer a powerful aspirational vision for many, they also present a looming governance crisis characterized by a breakdown in the social contract and a "fiscal exit" from municipal land taxation systems. Addressing this requires a paradigm shift in urban planning—one that moves away from the ideal of the "compact city" towards a serious engagement with the spatial and political realities of the exurban frontier.
National Treasury has proposed a national online gambling tax in addition to existing provincial taxes. This measure is intended to curb the rapid growth in online gambling activity and address its negative social harms. From 2021/22 to 2024/25, online and retail betting has more than tripled, while total gambling expenditure (which includes brick-and-mortar casinos, bingo, and limited payout machines) has more than doubled [\[1\]](#ref-1)[\[2\]](#ref-2).
Many black smallholder and emerging farmers struggle to access the finance crucial for developing their businesses. The result is persistent inequality in the agricultural sector. What can be done to make it more inclusive?
What has democracy meant for married women in the labour market? Married women are more actively seeking work but are still more likely to be unemployed than men. However, the expansion of education in the democratic era has significantly affected how she weighs up her potential wage and her husband’s earnings when deciding whether to look for work.
Over the past 10 years, South Africa has created only 130 000 new formal work opportunities on average a year – not nearly enough to absorb the 12 million work seekers currently unemployed. The size of the challenge is such that even if job growth in the formal sector were to grow to three percent per annum, it would take 50 years to wipe out unemployment. So, what are our options?
Each year South Africa commemorates Human Rights Day, marking the 1960 Sharpeville massacre, when police opened fire on people protesting against the pass laws. The day invites reflection on the many ways apartheid denied millions of South Africans their rights and opportunities.
A nationally representative survey of South African smokers confirms that illegal cigarettes made up roughly 60% of the total market in 2021. This aligns closely with other research indicating that the illicit market grew from less than 10% before 2010 to more than 55% in 2020 and subsequent years. We estimate the share of cigarettes sold at prices strongly indicative of illicit production, and identify brands and brand owners most implicated. The results show where enforcement agencies should focus their attention to curb the continued rise of illicit trade.
Agriculture is a key sector of the South African economy. Research institutions play a crucial role in generating evidence that can inform decision-making across this critical sector.
In the context of South Africa's deep structural unemployment, neither the empirical evidence nor the underlying theory supports the current narrowly targeted wage subsidy of South Africa's youth employment incentive. We outline recommendations for reform of the incentive as a broad-based employment subsidy, drawing in part on a comparison with the US earned-income tax credit. How should the ETI's design be adapted, and what are the cost implications?
In his 2026 budget speech, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana highlighted the need to remove bottlenecks in South Africa's ports. This follows the statements by President Cyril Ramaphosa in his 2026 State of the Nation address. The President said South Africa had begun to fix its ports. He pointed out that last month Transnet had signed a deal with an international port operator to manage the country's biggest container terminal in Durban's Pier 2, bringing in investment and getting the terminal back to "world class standards". Last year the Transnet National Ports Authority signed a 25-year deal with FFS Tank Terminals to operate and maintain a Liquid Bulk Terminal in the Port of Cape Town, bringing in more than R195-million in investment and doubling the terminal's storage capacity. This means there are now 10 licensed terminal operators in Cape Town's port, including bulk, fresh produce and passenger terminals, eight of them privately owned. President Ramaphosa promised that later this year, further public-private partnerships would be initiated, through a concession model "that preserves public ownership while mobilising private investment and expertise". But more must be done to bring competition into the harbours, argues economist Ryan Hawthorne. Durban, he says, should have four container terminal operators, and Cape Town two. To do this, he says, the Ports Authority needs to be separated from Transnet, in line with the National Ports act, and the Act itself may need to be amended.
Delivering the budget speech last Wednesday, Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana said South Africa had reached a “turning point” in its finances. We asked four prominent economists for their opinion on the budget, South Africa’s prospects, and what still needs to be done. These economists are: Haroon Bhorat from the DPRU; Andrew Donaldson from SALDRU; Ada Jansen from Stellenbosch University, and Anna-Maria Oosthuizen from UNU-WIDER.
In Part 1 of this article, we argued that inequality in South Africa is a core structural constraint on economic growth. Despite sustained income redistribution since 1994, the South African economy remains stuck in a cycle of stagnation, high unemployment, and deepening exclusion. There is little transformative vision capable of shifting the underlying structures of economic power and production. This can be remedied by a shift in emphasis from income redistribution to the redistribution of assets and endowments, including land, housing, education, and access to capital.